Hopefully this will solve issues for anyone that has had trouble receiving the direct link to the Google form. Please follow the link below to complete the elicitation we discussed during the ACJV Technical Committee meeting on February 21st.
ACJV Technical Committee Representative:
As many of you are aware the ACJV and BDJV have been working on a long-term effort to estimate current habitat status and needs for American black ducks and other eastern waterfowl species using a bio-energetics approach. To date, we have developed a prototype model that allows us step down NAWMP population goals to the county level, and estimate the energetic demand and supply for black ducks at the county level along the Atlantic Coast. This model will form allows us to identify areas that are lack sufficient habitat and should be prioritized for conservation efforts. The spatial scale of the current model encompasses wetlands within 10 miles of the coast, but we are currently working to expand this model to the entire ACJV jurisdiction and to incorporate other waterfowl species. However, we lack empirical data on the proportion of food waterfowl species and guilds obtain from different wetland types. To facilitate development of bio-energetic decision framework, we intend to estimate these parameters using expert opinion obtained from the ACJV waterfowl technical committee.
To obtain your input we are using the 4-point elicitation process (O’Leary et al. 2009, Speirs-Bridge et al. 2010, Runge et al. 2011). This process consists of experts providing 4 responses to each series of questions:
1. The value that is most likely (i.e., your best guess),
2. A low estimate of your best guess,
3. A high estimate of your best guess, and
4. Your confidence that the truth occurs between your low and high estimate.
In our case, we ask several questions related to the amount of food obtained or time spent in various wetland types including salt marsh, managed freshwater wetlands, etc. We are interested in your opinion regarding the mean and expect your low and high estimates to reflect your thoughts on the lowest the mean might be or the highest the mean might be; not the minimum and maximum possible. From this data we will derive a mean and associated distribution for each parameter of interest and incorporate the estimates into the bio-energetics model.
We have developed a google form to elicit your input. Based on draft input we believe it should take approximately 30 minutes to complete the survey. Please provide your input using the link above at your earliest convenience. If you have any questions or comments please feel free to contact Tim, John, Kirsten, or myself.